Morogoro, Tanzania, is preparing to launch an ambitious agriculture-led economic transformation that will rely heavily on private investment to finance nearly TZS478 trillion in development spending over the next five years, Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Centre Executive Director David Kafulila will announce at Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) on Thursday.
Kafulila's public lecture is expected to provide one of the clearest previews yet of the Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP IV), the government's blueprint for implementing the national Vision 2050 agenda between 2026/27 and 2030/31.
Convened by SUA Vice-Chancellor Prof. Raphael T. Chibunda, the lecture comes as Tanzania finalises a development strategy that places agriculture, industrialisation and public-private partnerships at the centre of efforts to accelerate economic growth, create jobs and expand exports.
The plan targets annual real GDP growth of 10.5 per cent by 2031, raising the economy from an estimated US$81.5 billion to US$118 billion. Delivering that ambition will require an estimated TZS477.7 trillion in investment, with the private sector expected to finance about 70 per cent of the total resource envelope.
The shift marks one of the biggest changes in Tanzania's development financing strategy. Rather than relying primarily on public spending, the government intends to mobilise private capital through public-private partnerships to fund large-scale infrastructure, irrigation, agro-processing and industrial projects.
Agriculture remains the cornerstone of the strategy. The sector contributes more than a quarter of Tanzania's GDP and provides livelihoods for more than half of the country's workforce, making it central to economic growth, poverty reduction and food security.
Yet despite its importance, agricultural productivity remains below potential. Low mechanisation, limited irrigation, poor storage facilities, weak processing capacity and restricted access to finance continue to constrain production and reduce farmers' incomes. Similar challenges affect livestock, fisheries and forestry, where underdeveloped value chains and outdated infrastructure limit growth.
Kafulila is expected to argue that Tanzania must move beyond exporting raw agricultural commodities and instead build a competitive, value-added economy driven by processing industries, technology and commercial farming.
Under the proposed strategy, investment will focus on expanding agro-processing industries, improving storage and logistics, strengthening rural value chains and increasing access to affordable finance. Digital technologies, including electronic extension services, product traceability and climate-smart farming systems, are also expected to play a greater role in improving productivity and meeting international export standards.
The government has set ambitious targets for the sector by the end of FYDP IV. Agricultural GDP growth is projected to rise from 4.1 percent to 10 percent, while agricultural exports are expected to increase from US$3.54 billion to US$5 billion. Post-harvest losses are targeted to fall sharply as investments in storage, processing and transport infrastructure expand.
One of the plan's flagship projects is the National Irrigation and Agro-Industrial Transformation Programme (NAGITA), which aims to position Tanzania as a regional food production and processing hub.
The programme will expand irrigation across the Rufiji, Mara and Songwe river basins while supporting investment in rice mills, edible oil plants, food packaging facilities and other agro-processing industries. It also includes cross-border cooperation with Malawi in developing the Songwe Basin, reflecting the regional importance of water management and food production.
The scale of the irrigation challenge illustrates why private investment has become central to the government's strategy. Tanzania has developed only a fraction of its irrigation potential and plans to expand irrigated land from about 983,000 hectares to five million hectares by 2031.
Closing that gap is expected to require more than US$20 billion in investment, or over US$4 billion annually during the implementation period, far beyond what public finances alone can support.
That financing reality places public-private partnerships at the heart of FYDP IV.
According to Kafulila's presentation, PPP projects are expected to mobilise about TZS170 trillion over the next five years, representing an eight-fold increase in delivery compared with previous targets.
The government estimates the investment could generate between 1.36 million and 1.87 million jobs while accelerating infrastructure development across agriculture, transport, energy and industry.
Recent PPP projects, including the rehabilitation of the TAZARA railway, the Dar es Salaam Port partnership with DP World, DART bus operations and the Kariakoo One-Stop Business Complex, are expected to be highlighted as examples of how structured partnerships can unlock major investment.
Authorities have already identified hundreds of projects across the country for potential PPP financing as Tanzania seeks to expand infrastructure, improve competitiveness and strengthen industrial growth.
Kafulila is also expected to draw lessons from countries that transformed their agricultural sectors through sustained investment in irrigation, technology and value chains, arguing that Tanzania can achieve similar results by creating a predictable investment environment and expanding private sector participation.
The lecture is expected to spark discussion among academics, researchers and policymakers on one of the country's most consequential development strategies. Beyond outlining government ambitions, it highlights the scale of the financial challenge ahead:
Tanzania's ability to achieve its agricultural and industrial transformation will depend not only on policy reforms, but on whether it can mobilise the unprecedented private investment needed to turn those plans into reality.
