By Adonis Byemelwa & Agencies
In a historic turn of events, Bashar al-Assad's authoritarian rule over Syria has come to an abrupt end. On Sunday 8th December, 2024, opposition forces stormed Damascus, declaring the nation liberated from more than five decades of al-Assad family rule.
Al-Assad and his family reportedly fled to Moscow, where they were granted asylum under a Russian-brokered deal ensuring the safety of Russian military and diplomatic assets in Syria. This dramatic collapse follows 13 years of civil war that have devastated Syria, claiming over half a million lives and displacing millions.
The speed of the regime’s downfall stunned observers. Just a week earlier, Assad's government retained control over key territories. However, a coordinated offensive by opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by Turkish-backed factions, changed the course of history.
Dubbed Operation Deterrence of Aggression, the campaign began on November 27 with a surprise attack on the frontlines between Idlib and Aleppo. Within days, opposition fighters captured Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, before advancing on Homs, Deraa, and, finally, Damascus.
The rapid unraveling of Assad’s forces highlighted years of erosion in his military’s capacity and morale. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported mass defections among soldiers and police officers, many of whom abandoned their posts as the opposition advanced.
Analysts attributed the collapse partly to Assad’s reliance on foreign backers, particularly Russia and Iran, to prop up his regime. With Russia focused on its war in Ukraine and Iran weakened by Israeli strikes, Assad’s forces were left vulnerable. Sky News described the regime's fall as a culmination of prolonged military and economic fragility.
Economic mismanagement and corruption further undermined Assad's government. Syria’s economy, already crippled by sanctions and war, has been described as propped up by the illicit trade of Captagon, a potent amphetamine.
As living conditions worsened, even Assad's staunchest supporters began questioning his leadership. The inflation rate skyrocketed, essential goods became scarce, and ordinary citizens struggled to survive. This economic despair translated into dwindling support among soldiers, many of whom reportedly refused to fight for a government they saw as illegitimate.
Celebrations erupted across Damascus as news of Assad's departure spread. Crowds gathered in the streets, waving flags and chanting slogans, relieved to see the end of a regime long associated with brutality and repression.
Yet, the moment of joy was laced with uncertainty about Syria's future. Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of HTS, has emerged as a key figure in the opposition's victory and is widely speculated to take on a leadership role. However, concerns linger over HTS’s Islamist ideology and its implications for building an inclusive, democratic Syria.
For decades, Bashar al-Assad’s rule was marked by violence and oppression. When he inherited power in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, there was cautious optimism for reform. Assad, originally an eye doctor with no formal political experience, was seen as a potential modernizer.
Those hopes quickly faded as he consolidated power in the same authoritarian mold as his father, suppressing dissent and ruling with an iron grip.
The first major challenge to Assad’s rule came in 2011 when peaceful protests erupted during the Arab Spring. Demands for democracy and civil liberties were met with a brutal crackdown that escalated into a full-blown civil war.
Assad dismissed the protests as foreign conspiracies and labeled his opponents as terrorists. His regime was accused of war crimes, including the use of chemical weapons, allegations he repeatedly denied. International watchdogs like the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) later found credible evidence implicating Assad in chemical attacks on civilians.
Over the years, Assad maintained power through the backing of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, which provided critical military and financial support. However, his control was limited to parts of Syria, and his government lacked legitimacy in the eyes of much of the international community.
Elections held in government-controlled areas were widely criticized as neither free nor fair. Despite claiming overwhelming victories in these polls, Assad's rule became increasingly isolated on the global stage.
The final blow to Assad’s government came as opposition forces capitalized on a weakened military and growing public dissatisfaction. As his army faltered, Assad’s allies negotiated safe passage for him and his family to Russia, signaling an end to his 24-year rule.
Russian media later confirmed his arrival in Moscow, describing the asylum as a humanitarian gesture. The Washington Post reported that Russian officials had secured agreements with opposition leaders to ensure the safety of Russian interests in Syria, underscoring Moscow’s pragmatic shift as Assad’s regime crumbled.
The fall of Damascus has been met with mixed reactions globally. In Tanzania, political analysts have drawn parallels between Assad's downfall and the broader lessons for authoritarian governments.
Many critics view the collapse as a cautionary tale, highlighting the risks of ignoring public grievances and relying on foreign support to maintain power. Commentators have also emphasized the role of economic mismanagement in hastening Assad's demise, warning that leaders who fail to address their citizens' needs face eventual collapse.
Rebuilding Syria will be an immense challenge. Much of the country lies in ruins, with infrastructure destroyed and communities divided. Al Jazeera noted that international organizations are calling for an inclusive political process to guide Syria toward democracy. However, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles.
Opposition groups, though united in ousting Assad, have divergent visions for Syria’s future. The international community will play a critical role in supporting the reconstruction effort and fostering reconciliation among Syria’s diverse population.
Assad's departure marks the end of an era but leaves behind a legacy of devastation. The civil war displaced millions, many of whom remain refugees, and shattered the nation's social fabric. Yet, there is hope that this moment of change could pave the way for a new beginning. Syrian policy analyst Marwan Kabalan described the fall of Assad as both an end and a beginning, urging Syrians to seize the opportunity to rebuild their country on principles of democracy and human rights.
For now, Syria stands at a crossroads, grappling with the aftermath of decades of authoritarian rule and the challenges of transition.
The celebrations in Damascus are a testament to the resilience of the Syrian people, who endured unimaginable suffering under Assad's regime. As one Damascus resident told Sky News, "We’ve waited years for this day. Now, we must ensure it leads to a better future for all Syrians."