Tanzania is expected to experience a mixed pattern of rainfall during the Masika season from March to May 2026, with some areas receiving normal to above-normal rains while others are likely to record normal to below-normal rainfall, according to the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA).
In its latest seasonal climate outlook, TMA says the forecast covers the country’s bimodal rainfall areas, including the Lake Victoria Basin, the Northeastern Highlands, the Northern Coast and the northern part of Kigoma Region.
The outlook has been shared with key weather-sensitive sectors to support early planning, preparedness and risk reduction.
According to TMA, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the Northern Coast, the western side of the Lake Victoria Basin particularly Kagera and Geita regions and the northern part of Kigoma.
Meanwhile, normal to below-normal rains are forecast for the Northeastern Highlands, covering Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions, as well as parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, including Mwanza, Shinyanga, Mara and Simiyu.
The authority projects that Masika rains will begin between the fourth week of February and the first week of March 2026 in most areas of the Lake Victoria Basin.
In the Northern Coast, rainfall is expected to start during the first and second weeks of March, while the Northeastern Highlands are likely to receive their onset in the second and third weeks of March.
The rains are expected to end between late May and early June, with April projected to be the peak month for rainfall activity.
TMA warns that areas forecast to receive normal to above-normal rainfall may experience episodes of excessive moisture and flooding, which could affect crop production, infrastructure and settlement areas.
Conversely, regions expected to receive normal to below-normal rains may face reduced river flows and declining water levels in reservoirs, increasing pressure on water supply for domestic use, agriculture and livestock.
The outlook also highlights potential health risks associated with the season. Flooding and water stagnation in wetter areas may contaminate water sources and increase the risk of water-borne and vector-borne diseases, while water shortages in drier areas may force communities to rely on unsafe water sources.
Reviewing the ongoing Msimu rains from November 2025 to April 2026 in unimodal areas, TMA notes that the season generally began on time, with enhanced rainfall recorded in December over many regions.
Rainfall for the remaining part of the season is expected to continue largely in line with earlier forecasts.
According to TMA, the projected Masika rainfall pattern is influenced by ocean and atmospheric conditions.
Sea surface temperatures over the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia are expected to be slightly warmer than average, while conditions over the western Indian Ocean off the East African coast are projected to remain neutral, a situation that may slightly reduce moisture flow toward coastal areas.
Meanwhile, weak westerly winds from eastern Congo later in the season are likely to enhance moisture flow into the western Lake Victoria Basin, supporting rainfall in those areas.
Based on the forecast, TMA advises farmers in areas expecting above-normal rainfall to take measures against waterlogging, soil erosion and crop diseases, while those in drier regions are encouraged to conserve water and use appropriate crop varieties.
Livestock keepers, fishers and local authorities are urged to plan for both water scarcity and disease risks, depending on local conditions.
TMA also cautions that extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, may occur even in areas forecast to receive normal to below-normal rains.
The authority urges the public and stakeholders to complement the seasonal outlook with daily, ten-day and monthly forecasts, as well as official warnings.
The authority has reminded journalists and the public that weather information should only be obtained from official TMA sources, noting that dissemination of weather information from unofficial sources is an offence under the Tanzania Meteorological Authority Act No. 2 of 2019.
TMA says it will continue to monitor weather and climate systems and issue updates when necessary, urging all sectors to seek tailored forecasts and expert guidance to minimise risks and maximise opportunities during the 2026 Masika rainfall season.