Tanzania is bracing for a challenging 2025/26 Msimu rainy season, with the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) warning that most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal to normal rainfall.
The outlook, covering November 2025 to April 2026, signals possible prolonged dry spells and uneven rain distribution, which could affect agriculture, water supply, livestock, and other climate-sensitive sectors.
Western and central regions, including Kigoma, Tabora, Katavi, Singida, and Dodoma, are expected to experience below-normal to normal rains.
The southwestern highlands Rukwa, Songwe, Mbeya, Iringa, Njombe as well as southern regions, including Ruvuma, Mtwara, Lindi, and the southern part of Morogoro, are likely to see normal to below-normal rainfall.
The season is expected to start in late October in Tabora, Katavi, and Kigoma, spreading to other areas by mid-November, and to end between late April and early May 2026.
The second half of the season, February to April, is likely to be wetter than the first half.
TMA warns that below-normal rains may cause soil moisture stress, affecting crop growth and yields for rain-fed farming.
Water levels in rivers and reservoirs are expected to decline, potentially impacting domestic water supply, irrigation, and hydropower generation.
Limited water and pasture could also affect livestock and fisheries, increasing competition among pastoralists and communities.
Wildlife parks and game reserves may face water and pasture shortages, raising the risk of animals encroaching into settlements.
Authorities are urged to improve park infrastructure and raise community awareness to minimize human-wildlife conflicts.
The construction and transport sectors could benefit from generally suppressed rains, but short periods of heavy rainfall may disrupt operations.
Energy generation, particularly hydropower, may be affected, though suppressed rains could create opportunities for new power projects, oil and gas exploration, and small-scale mineral production.
Local authorities are urged to maintain clean water supply systems and improve drainage to prevent flooding during sporadic heavy rains.
Health authorities should ensure access to safe water and stock essential medicines, as dry spells may force communities to use unsafe sources.
Agribusiness and industries may face reduced raw material availability and higher operational costs due to below-normal rainfall.
The private sector, including banks and insurance providers, is encouraged to adopt measures to ensure business continuity and resilience.
Disaster management teams are advised to prepare for both drought and flash floods, strengthening infrastructure, and educating communities on preventive measures.
Journalists are reminded to rely on official TMA forecasts to provide accurate weather information to the public.
TMA will continue monitoring climate developments and issue updates as needed. Stakeholders are encouraged to use daily, ten-day, and monthly forecasts to plan effectively for the season.
This forecast serves as a vital guide for farmers, pastoralists, industries, and local authorities, emphasizing the need for proactive planning and resilience in the face of variable rainfall.