By Adonis Byemelwa
The political landscape in Tanzania, especially within the opposition parties, has been marked by increasing tension as they navigate the complex terrain of challenging the long-standing dominance of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
The announcement by Mr. Tundu Lissu to withdraw from the race for vice-chairperson and instead contest for the position of national chairperson of the opposition party Chadema on 12th December 2024, highlights these internal party dynamics and the larger political struggle at play.
Chadema, as the principal opposition party, has long been at the forefront of pushing for democratic reforms and a fairer political environment in Tanzania.
Nevertheless, despite its significant support base, the party has struggled with internal divisions and leadership disputes, which have weakened its ability to present a unified front against CCM.
The calls for renewal and fresh leadership, as highlighted by Lissu's shift in candidacy, reflect growing concerns about the party's ability to adapt to the evolving political landscape, and to effectively challenge the entrenched system that has been dominated by CCM for decades.
One of the main tensions within the opposition lies in its response to the government's increasing centralization of power.
Since the late President John Magufuli's administration and continuing under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, CCM has shown little indication of relinquishing control over key political, economic, and social institutions.
This has left the opposition parties, especially Chadema, with limited space to operate freely, exacerbating their internal fractures as they attempt to align on common strategies to counter the state’s heavy-handed tactics.
Additionally, these internal tensions are compounded by the constant pressure from the ruling party's manipulation of state resources, the media, and law enforcement to ensure its dominance.
Moreover, while Lissu’s candidacy for national chairperson highlights a desire for change, it also illustrates the delicate balance of leadership transitions within the party.
The move has sparked debates about whether the party is ready for such a shift or if it risks exacerbating divisions within its ranks.
Lissu’s popularity and experience, particularly his time in exile after surviving an assassination attempt, have made him a central figure within Chadema.
However, there are concerns over whether his leadership style and vision for the party are sufficiently aligned with the aspirations of the broader membership, or if they will further polarize an already fractious opposition.
The opposition’s challenge is not merely one of leadership but also coherence in ideology. There is a need for a clear, compelling vision that resonates with the electorate beyond the desire to challenge the status quo.
This requires not only addressing the shortcomings within their parties but also offering pragmatic solutions to the country’s pressing social and economic issues, especially in the face of the ruling party's strategic use of populist policies to consolidate its base.
As Tanzania heads toward its next general elections, the opposition's ability to present a united and credible alternative will undoubtedly be tested.
Tensions within Chadema, coupled with broader opposition divisions, highlight the party’s struggle for identity and purpose.
Mr. Tundu Lissu’s decision to shift from running for vice-chairperson to contesting the national chairperson position marks a critical moment in Chadema's evolution and its challenge to the dominance of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
Lissu’s candidacy, driven by a desire to rejuvenate the party, has sparked widespread support, particularly among youth and the diaspora, with social media playing a central role in mobilizing voters.
However, some critics, especially from Shinyanga and Mwanza, argue that party leader Freeman Mbowe's past dealings with CCM may hinder Lissu’s rise, with fears that Mbowe, viewing the party as his political legacy, may resist ceding control.
While Lissu is seen by many as a symbol of resistance and democratic reform, others within the party remain uncertain about his ability to unite Chadema and lead it to electoral success.
The ruling CCM, which controls the political machinery, appears wary of Lissu’s growing influence, further complicating the opposition's efforts to challenge the status quo.
To some within the ruling party, Lissu’s popularity among youth and his bold stance against the government’s authoritarian practices represent a genuine threat to their dominance.
Nevertheless, this unease also comes with a degree of strategic calculation, as the ruling party has historically known how to navigate such challenges.
The system’s past dismantling of parties like NCCR-Mageuzi, CUF, and TLP, which lost significant influence following intense political and legal pressures in 2015, serves as a cautionary tale for Chadema.
Critics, particularly those from Shinyanga and Mwanza, warn that if Chadema does not manage its internal divisions effectively, it could meet the same fate as these now-defunct opposition parties.
Indeed, the question of Lissu's leadership is not just one of party strategy; it is a matter of national political survival. The success or failure of Chadema to unite behind a clear and cohesive leadership will determine whether it can avoid becoming another casualty of Tanzania's fragmented opposition.
The ruling CCM, having witnessed the downfall of smaller parties, might well be preparing to use similar tactics to neutralize any challenge to its hegemony, viewing Lissu's rise as an existential threat to the party’s long-standing dominance.
If Chadema fails to maintain internal unity, it risks becoming another weak opposition faction, sidelined by the same political forces that effectively silenced the voices of NCCR-Mageuzi, CUF, and TLP.
As Lissu moves closer to contesting for the national chairperson role, the coming months will be crucial in shaping not just the future of Chadema, but also the broader direction of Tanzania’s political trajectory.
His ability to unite his party and translate his digital momentum into tangible support will be the key to whether Chadema can present a viable alternative to CCM.
Yet, the political realities of Tanzania’s deeply entrenched one-party dominance suggest that the opposition's survival hinges not only on its leadership but also on its ability to withstand the systemic pressures exerted by the ruling government.
The opposition, including Lissu’s supporters, must be acutely aware that the stakes are far higher than a mere leadership contest; they are fighting for the very soul of Tanzania's democracy.