By Adonis Byemelwa
Djibouti's Foreign Minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, long celebrated for his sharp diplomatic instincts and masterful political maneuvering, now finds himself at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical maelstrom. Once seen as a frontrunner for the coveted African Union chairmanship, Youssouf’s bid has been thrown into turmoil following explosive remarks backing Houthi rebels in a conflict that has shaken the region.
His once-untouchable reputation as a stabilizing force in East Africa now hangs in the balance as his candidacy faces mounting opposition, both within Africa and across the international community.
His candidacy, once seen as a strong bid, has come under intense scrutiny following controversial remarks supporting Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. These comments have ignited a firestorm, raising concerns about Djibouti’s delicate balancing act in a volatile region, and casting doubt on Youssouf's suitability to lead the AU at a time when geopolitical tensions are at their peak.
Youssouf’s endorsement of the Iran-backed Houthis, who have launched repeated attacks on maritime vessels in the Red Sea, including one hypersonic missile strike targeting Israel, has rattled key diplomatic players.
During a speech at a regional forum in mid-2024, Youssouf framed the Houthi attacks as a "defensive measure" in response to the Saudi-led coalition's airstrikes in Yemen, even going so far as to describe them as a "legitimate" form of resistance to foreign intervention and support for Palestine.
This rhetoric has triggered an immediate backlash from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both of whom have invested heavily in Djibouti’s infrastructure and military presence. Diplomatic insiders say Riyadh and Abu Dhabi consider Youssouf's remarks as "irresponsible" and a "dangerous endorsement of terrorism," threatening the fragile diplomatic ties that Djibouti has cultivated over the years.
The timing of Youssouf’s comments could not be worse. Djibouti, a small nation whose economy relies heavily on foreign military leases and port revenues, is a strategic linchpin in the Horn of Africa.
With military bases from global powers like the United States, China, France, and Saudi Arabia on its soil, Djibouti has skillfully leveraged its geographic location to maintain neutrality. Youssouf’s remarks, however, suggest a shift towards Iran’s sphere of influence—a risky pivot that could jeopardize relations with key Gulf allies and Western powers.
"Youssouf’s support for the Houthis puts Djibouti in a precarious position," said a geopolitical analyst from the University of Cape Town. "The Houthis are viewed by the West, particularly the U.S., as a destabilizing force in the region, especially given their links to Iran. Djibouti’s economic and security interests are deeply tied to these international partnerships, which could now be at risk."
Indeed, the Houthis have been a flashpoint in the broader proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Yemen caught in the middle. The U.S., which maintains a significant military presence in Djibouti, has been a staunch supporter of the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis. Youssouf’s stance, therefore, raises concerns about Djibouti’s alignment in this conflict and its long-term implications for international relations.
Domestically, the fallout from Youssouf’s remarks could also have severe economic consequences. The UAE, a significant investor in Djibouti’s infrastructure projects, may reconsider its economic partnership if it perceives Djibouti as aligning with Iran and the Houthis. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s support for Djibouti’s development and military cooperation could dwindle, dealing a blow to the small nation's ambitions of becoming a regional hub for trade and diplomacy.
Youssouf's bid for the AU chairmanship is now hanging by a thread. Several African nations have expressed concerns about his ability to lead the continent's most important political body while holding such a divisive stance on a critical regional conflict. "The African Union needs a leader who can unite, not alienate," said a political expert from Addis Ababa University. "Youssouf’s comments risk dividing AU member states, especially those with close ties to Gulf nations."
Youssouf’s tenure as Djibouti’s top diplomat since 2005 has been marked by his role in positioning the country as a stable hub in a volatile region. However, his recent statements have cast a shadow over this legacy, leading critics to question whether Djibouti’s foreign policy is undergoing a dangerous shift. The Yemeni conflict, which has seen the Houthis launch several attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea, has already disrupted regional stability. Djibouti’s geographical proximity to Yemen means it has a vested interest in maintaining peace in the region.
Furthermore, Youssouf’s comments complicate Djibouti’s delicate relationship with Yemen. While Djibouti has long supported Yemen’s displaced population through chain migration and banking partnerships, aligning with the Houthis could undermine these ties.
Yemeni financial institutions, such as CAC International Bank, which holds a significant share of Djibouti’s banking assets, are already in turmoil, and further political instability could exacerbate the situation.
"Youssouf’s remarks could isolate Djibouti from key allies at a time when it needs international support the most," said an African studies professor from the University of Nairobi. "This is not just about Yemen; it’s about Djibouti’s role in the wider geopolitical landscape and the risks it takes by appearing to side with Iran against Saudi Arabia and the UAE."
With the February elections for the AU chairmanship looming, Youssouf’s once-promising candidacy is now clouded by controversy. What was initially viewed as a formidable bid, grounded in Djibouti’s strategic clout and Youssouf’s diplomatic prowess, now confronts growing resistance from both African states and international actors. Many are left questioning whether Youssouf can weather the storm and restore his standing, or if his contentious remarks will derail his aspirations for continental leadership.