Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, February 2024, have committed to forming a confederation and called for urgent provisions to ensure the free movement of people and goods following their exit from ECOWAS.Photo: Courtesy
By Adonis Byemelwa
Burkina
Faso, Mali, and Niger, three Francophone West African countries under military
rule, have made a dramatic geopolitical shift by establishing the Alliance of
Sahel States (AES), a new confederation. Formed from the remnants of their
previous regional alliances, this coalition marks a significant departure from
traditional regional and international frameworks.
The
AES was conceived on September 16, 2023, and officially launched on July 6,
2024. This new confederation arose from a mutual defense pact among the three
nations, each of which has seen its pro-Western governments overthrown by
military coups.
Burkina
Faso, Mali, and Niger have collectively exited both the African Union (AU) and
the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), highlighting their
dissatisfaction with these bodies.
Historically,
Mali withdrew from the G5 Sahel alliance in 2002, with Niger and Burkina Faso
following suit in 2023. The dissolution of the G5 Sahel, once a key regional
security framework, paved the way for the AES. The new alliance is notably
anti-French and critical of ECOWAS, reflecting a broader sentiment of
discontent with international influence and perceived ineffectiveness.
The
AES was officially declared on July 6, 2024, in Niamey, Niger’s capital. The
inauguration was attended by President Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso,
Transitional President Assimi Goita of Mali, and President Abdourahamane
Tchiani of Niger. This declaration was met with both excitement and skepticism
across the continent.
The
AES's creation is a response to several grievances. The member states argue
that the AU and ECOWAS have failed to adequately support them in combating
jihadist insurgencies. They also decry the sanctions imposed by these
organizations, which they claim harm their populations and accuse ECOWAS of
being unduly influenced by foreign powers, particularly France.
In
addition to its critical stance on external influences, the AES aims to enhance
regional integration. The confederation’s charter includes plans for a regional
bank, a stabilization fund, and measures to attract foreign investment. The goal
is to foster economic development and security within the member states while
presenting an alternative to the existing regional frameworks.
The
AES's Blueprint Document has been circulated widely, generating significant
discussion. Critics argue that this move represents a threat to democracy and
could signify an authoritarian consolidation of power. Conversely, supporters
view it as a revolutionary step towards genuine self-determination and economic
independence, marking a potential end to a legacy of colonialism.
The
Alliance’s formation has garnered varied international reactions. The United
States and European nations have expressed concerns about the implications of
this new bloc, particularly regarding its anti-Western stance and its potential
to destabilize the region further.
Meanwhile,
Russia has expressed support, aligning with its broader strategy of promoting
"African solutions to African problems." Russian officials have
praised the AES as a constructive regional security initiative and affirmed
their commitment to supporting the alliance’s goals.
In
a related development, Mali's military leader Assimi Goita recently discussed
the regional situation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin emphasized
the need for peaceful resolutions to enhance regional stability, a stance
reflected in Russia’s diplomatic support for the AES.
ECOWAS,
already struggling with internal weaknesses and criticisms, faces a significant
challenge as it contemplates the ramifications of the AES's creation. The regional
bloc is attempting to bolster its capacity with a proposed standing regional
force, but the financial and logistical implications of such an initiative are
substantial. Critics argue that ECOWAS's ineffectiveness and perceived bias
have contributed to the current crisis.
Professor
Maurice Okoli from the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World
Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, observes that
the AES represents a critical realignment in West African politics.
He
notes that the confederation’s formation underscores the growing frustration
with traditional regional institutions and highlights a shift towards a more
autonomous regional security strategy.
Jenerali
Ulimwengu, a renowned Tanzanian international relations expert and journalist,
suggests that the AES could reshape the regional balance of power. He
emphasizes that the new alliance’s focus on self-reliance and resistance to
external influence reflects a broader trend in African geopolitics.
The
AES's impact on the West African Sahel, a region plagued by insecurity,
poverty, and environmental challenges, remains uncertain. The confederation
must navigate significant obstacles, including its landlocked geography and
potential economic disruptions due to its withdrawal from the West African
Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which uses the CFA franc.
The
Sahel region, which includes Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, faces severe
security issues exacerbated by terrorism and organized crime. Groups such as Boko
Haram, Islamic State, and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have
intensified violence, contributing to a worsening humanitarian crisis. The
AES's success will depend on its ability to address these challenges while
fostering regional stability and development.
The
ECOWAS bloc, which was established in 1975, has faced increasing scrutiny over
its effectiveness and response to regional crises. The departure of Burkina
Faso, Mali, and Niger has raised questions about the future of the organization
and the broader implications for West African integration.
As
the AES moves forward, it will need to demonstrate its ability to provide a
viable alternative to existing regional frameworks. The confederation’s success
or failure could have far-reaching consequences for West Africa’s geopolitical
landscape and its approach to regional cooperation and development.
The
emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) has captured the attention of
renowned African scholars in history and international politics. Professor
Maurice Okoli, a distinguished fellow at the Institute for African Studies and
the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of
Sciences, offers insight into the significance of this development. According
to Professor Okoli, the AES represents a pivotal shift in regional politics,
reflecting a deeper dissatisfaction with traditional institutions like the
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU).
Similarly,
Jenerali Ulimwengu, a respected Tanzanian international relations expert and
journalist, views the AES as a bold attempt to redefine regional governance and
security. Ulimwengu emphasizes that the formation of this new confederation
underscores a critical moment in West African history, as countries seek
greater autonomy and address longstanding security and economic issues.
Professor
Adebayo Olukoshi, a prominent academic in African politics and development,
also highlights the implications of the AES. He suggests that the confederation's
creation signals a broader trend of African nations reevaluating their
relationships with international institutions and exploring alternative models
for regional cooperation.
The
perspectives of these scholars provide valuable context for understanding the
AES's potential impact on West African politics and governance. Their analysis
underscores the significance of this new confederation in shaping the future of
the region and navigating complex geopolitical dynamics.
Burkina
Faso, Mali, and Niger are embarking on a significant experiment with the
formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, drawing global attention. The
outcome of this initiative could redefine regional alliances, impact global
power dynamics, and set a new precedent for how African nations address
internal and external pressures.
The
coming months will be critical in determining whether the AES can turn its
ambitious vision into enduring stability and prosperity, shaping the future of
West Africa and potentially influencing the broader geopolitical landscape.
