Economic figures reveal the complexity
of the relationship between population growth and economic development in Dar
es Salaam City. Photo: Courtesy
By Adonis Byemelwa
World Population Day, observed
annually on July 11, raises awareness of global population issues. Established
by the United Nations Development Programme in 1989, this event was inspired by
the public interest generated by Five Billion Day on July 11, 1987, marking the
world's population reaching five billion people.
The day aims to increase awareness of
various population issues, such as family planning, gender equality, poverty,
maternal health, and human rights. The idea was suggested by Dr. K.C. Zachariah
when the global population reached five billion, during his tenure as a senior
demographer at the World Bank.
While global attention peaks at
population increments of billions, the world population grows by approximately
100 million every 14 months. By November 2022, the global population reached
eight billion, highlighting the importance of addressing population-related
concerns.
Tanzania, a country that exemplifies
significant demographic growth, has seen its population surge from around 8.7
million in 1955 to over 69.4 million in 2024. This more than sevenfold increase
is a clear indication of the broader demographic trends observed in many
African nations.
The annual growth rate, which averaged 2.85%
in the early 1960s, peaked at over 3% in the mid-1980s and has since remained
around 3%.
The sustained growth is primarily
driven by a high fertility rate, which has recently declined from its peak of
seven children per woman in the 1970s to 4.51 in 2024. According to Tanzania's
2022 census statistics, the median age is a mere 17 years, emphasizing the
youthful nature of the population.
Economic figures reveal the complexity
of the relationship between population growth and economic development in
Africa. South Africa's GDP, for instance, amounted to over $373 billion in
2024, the highest on the continent. Egypt followed with a GDP of approximately
$347.6 billion, and Algeria ranked third with about $266.8 billion.
These figures reflect the dynamic economic
landscape of Africa, with several countries among the fastest-growing economies
globally. In this context, Tanzania's fifth place in population ranking, with
about 67.4 million people in 2023, presents both opportunities and challenges
for economic growth.
A large and youthful population, with
a median age of 17, offers a substantial potential workforce that can drive
economic activities if properly harnessed.
However, the high fertility rates
necessitate the expansion of infrastructure, healthcare, and educational
services to accommodate the growing population.
The 38% urban population suggests a
trend towards urbanization, which could spur economic development through
increased industrialization and service sector growth, provided urban planning
and investments keep pace with population growth.
Renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs
emphasizes, "Africa’s rapid population growth will require unprecedented
investment in health and education to ensure that it can sustain and build on
its economic gains."
This statement underscores the need
for substantial investment in human capital to transform demographic growth
into economic prosperity. Countries that successfully invest in education and
healthcare can harness the demographic dividend of a youthful population to
boost economic productivity.
Migration patterns have also played a
role in shaping Tanzania's demographic landscape. Although the net migration
rate has often been negative, indicating more people leaving than entering the
country, the overall impact on population growth has been minimal compared to
natural birth rates.
This is evident from the steady
population increase despite periods of negative net migration. As Tanzania
continues to grow, managing this demographic expansion will be crucial for
sustainable development, requiring policies that address the needs of its young
and urbanizing population while ensuring economic growth and social stability.
Tanzania's dependents are almost 85%,
a significant figure that can strain resources as more investment is needed in
healthcare, education, and social services. The University of Dar es Salaam lecturer
Dr. John Msinde points out, "The high dependency ratio requires a
concerted effort in policy and investment to ensure that the working-age
population is capable of supporting the dependents."
This highlights the importance of strategic planning and investment in human capital to manage population growth effectively. Population growth can also spur economic diversification if there is a conducive environment for business and investment.
Diverse economies that are not overly
reliant on a single sector, such as agriculture or mining, are better
positioned to absorb a growing workforce and sustain economic growth. Egypt,
with a population of 112 million, a relatively lower fertility rate of 2.8, and
a median age of 24, has diversified its economy to support its growing
population.
Economist Dr. Dambisa Moyo notes,
"Economic diversification is key to mitigating the risks associated with
demographic pressures and ensuring sustainable growth."
In many African countries, agriculture
remains a significant part of the economy. Population growth can lead to
increased agricultural productivity if there is access to land, technology, and
markets.
Industrial development can provide
jobs for the growing population, contributing to economic development. Retired
University of Dodoma Professor Davis Mwanfupe emphasizes, "African nations
need to focus on industrialization and improving agricultural productivity to
harness the economic potential of their growing populations." This
approach requires sound policies and investments to maximize the economic
benefits of population growth.
Countries like Nigeria, with a
population of over 223.8 million, stand as the most populous in Africa.
Nigeria's large population offers a vast domestic market for goods and
services, stimulating economic activities and attracting investments.
The country's median age of 17 and a
fertility rate of 5.1 indicate a high dependency ratio but also a potential
demographic dividend if the youth are adequately educated and employed.
However, Nigeria's high population density of 246 people per square kilometer
and significant urbanization rate of 54% pose challenges such as the need for
robust infrastructure, housing, and social services to sustain economic growth.
Milline Mbonile, Professor of
Geography at the University of Dar es Salaam, states, "The relationship
between population growth and economic development in Africa is complex and
requires a balanced approach.
While a growing population presents
opportunities for economic expansion and a demographic dividend, it also
requires substantial investments in human capital, infrastructure, and economic
diversification to realize these benefits." This sentiment captures the
multifaceted nature of managing population growth in Africa.
China and other developed countries
have demonstrated the benefits of controlled population growth, ensuring
sustainable development through strategic planning and investment.
As African countries continue to
experience rapid population growth, they can learn from these examples to
achieve a balance between population management and economic development. By
investing in human capital, diversifying economies, and ensuring robust
infrastructure, African nations can turn their demographic trends into economic
opportunities.
The relationship between population
growth and economic development in Africa is multifaceted and requires a
balanced approach. While a growing population presents opportunities for
economic expansion and a demographic dividend, it also requires substantial
investments in human capital, infrastructure, and economic diversification to
realize these benefits.
Countries that can effectively manage
their population growth through strategic planning and investment are better
positioned to achieve sustainable economic development, turning demographic
challenges into opportunities for prosperity.