By Adonis
Byemelwa
Pressure is mounting on
President Joe Biden to step aside after his lackluster performance in the first
presidential debate against Donald Trump. With the November election
approaching, more senior Democrats are expressing their concerns publicly and
privately.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have warned Biden that his
candidacy might adversely affect other Democrats running for office. Over 20
lawmakers, along with prominent supporters and party donors, have broken ranks,
urging a change.
Despite the growing discontent,
Biden has vowed to stay in the race. However, a recent COVID-19 infection will
sideline him for several days. Let's explore the possible scenarios.
If Biden voluntarily withdraws,
the process to find a replacement would be relatively straightforward. The
Democratic Party's nominee will officially be chosen at the Democratic National
Convention (DNC) in Chicago from August 19-22.
Delegates, who are party
officials assigned proportionally based on primary election results, formally
choose the nominee. This year, Biden secured almost 99% of the nearly 4,000
delegates. According to DNC rules, these delegates are "pledged" to
support the incumbent president.
If Biden steps down, it could
lead to an open convention where potential nominees are suggested, and
delegates vote until one receives a majority. This could trigger a frantic
contest among Democrats for the nomination.
Biden has not indicated any
intention to step aside, but if he does, it would significantly complicate the
situation. Political historian Leah Wright Rigueur told reporters, "If he
were to get replaced, part of the negotiation for him stepping down would
likely involve him having a say in his replacement."
Forcing Biden out, if he is
unwilling to go, would be unprecedented. In modern political history, a major
national party has never attempted a hostile takeover of the nomination.
However, DNC regulations have loopholes that could theoretically allow delegates
to choose another candidate "in all good conscience." Yet, experts,
including Wright Rigueur, doubt there would be a revolt among party delegates.
The DNC can alter party rules at
any point, as seen in 1968 when President Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to run
for re-election, leading to changes in the delegate process.
Even if Biden were to exit
suddenly, conservative groups are poised to file lawsuits challenging the
legality of any replacement Democrat's eligibility for the ballot.
Vice President Kamala Harris
would automatically step in if Biden were to step down during his presidential
term. However, this does not apply if Biden pulls out of the race for the
upcoming election. Harris would need to secure the majority of delegates just
like any other candidate. Biden might endorse her, but her relatively low
popularity could be a disadvantage.
The 25th Amendment allows the
vice president and a majority of the cabinet to declare the president unable to
perform duties, transferring power to the vice president. This has never been
invoked. After the Capitol riot in 2021, Democrats urged then-Vice President
Mike Pence to invoke this clause to oust Trump, but the move failed.
The recent discourse among US-based
Tanzanian diaspora figures like Gratian Mugashe in Detroit, Itogo Gabby in
Maryland, and Professor Filbert Namwamba in New York highlights valuable
insights for African leaders.
These experts stress the importance of
transparency, democratic mechanisms, and effective succession planning in
governance, drawing lessons from the ongoing political processes in democratic
countries. Their perspectives underscore the resilience of democratic
institutions and the critical need for leaders to respect term limits.
Gratian Mugashe, a prominent voice in
Detroit, argues that the success of democratic frameworks hinges on their
ability to address leadership challenges openly and transparently. He states,
"African leaders must understand that democracy thrives on the rule of law
and respect for institutional processes. Ignoring these principles leads to
instability and erodes public trust."
In Maryland, Itogo Gabby emphasizes
the need for effective succession planning to ensure continuity and stability
in governance. "One of the key lessons from established democracies is the
importance of preparing for leadership transitions. Succession planning is not
just about choosing a successor; it's about building a legacy of good
governance and sustainable development," Gabby explains.
Southern University Professor Filbert
Namwamba speaks out on the critical need for respecting term limits in
leadership. "Ignoring term limits undermines democracy itself,"
Namwamba asserts. "African leaders must understand that their role is to
serve the people and the nation, not cling to personal power. Adhering to term
limits promotes a healthy rotation of leadership and prevents the entrenchment
of power."
The experiences of older African
leaders who have previously ignored term limits serve as cautionary tales. Many
of these leaders have faced political and social upheavals, coups, and
significant loss of credibility both domestically and internationally.
The former President of Zimbabwe, Robert
Mugabe, is a notable example. His extended stay in power, defying term limits,
eventually led to his ousting and left Zimbabwe in a state of economic and
political turmoil.
Linking these insights to recent
events in the United States, the attempt on former President Donald Trump's
life brought to the forefront the significance of robust democratic
institutions and mechanisms for addressing crises.
Despite the gravity of the situation,
the US demonstrated its ability to maintain stability and uphold the rule of
law. This resilience can serve as an inspiration for African nations grappling
with leadership challenges.
The Tanzanian diaspora in the US sees
this as a critical lesson for African leaders. Transparency and respect for
democratic norms not only prevent crises but also strengthen the social
contract between leaders and citizens. As Itogo Gabby succinctly puts it,
"Democracy is not a perfect system, but its strength lies in its ability
to self-correct and evolve through transparency and accountability."
The insights from Gratian Mugashe,
Itogo Gabby, and Professor Filbert Namwamba provide a roadmap for African
leaders. Embracing democratic principles, respecting term limits, and planning
for leadership transitions are fundamental to achieving stability and
sustainable development. The resilience of democratic institutions, as seen in
the US, offers a valuable model for African nations striving for progress and
good governance.