Burundi’s current political
landscape is shaped by the tumultuous events of 2015 when President Pierre
Nkurunziza secured a controversial third term through constitutional
manipulation. This move, unlike in Rwanda where President Paul Kagame faced no
opposition to similar changes, plunged Burundi into a political and security
crisis.
Nkurunziza's decision to seek a
third term, seen as a violation of term limits, sparked intense public
opposition. In response, Nkurunziza employed repressive measures, including
arbitrary arrests and politically targeted assassinations, isolating Burundi in
the international arena.
Nkurunziza eventually announced
he would not run for a fourth term in the 2020 elections, a decision met with
relief by both domestic opposition and international observers.
General Evariste Ndayishimiye, a
veteran of Burundi’s civil war, was chosen by the ruling party, the National
Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy
(CNDD-FDD), as Nkurunziza’s successor.
Ndayishimiye won the 2020
elections and took office earlier than expected following Nkurunziza’s sudden
death in June.
In March 2024, Agathon Rwasa,
leader of the main opposition party, the National Freedom Council (CNL),
announced his intention to return to Burundi. Rwasa had left for Tanzania after
a faction within the CNL called for his removal, accusing him of failing to
unify the party.
Rwasa emphasized the need for
his contribution to national development and called on the international
community to prevent democratic backsliding in Burundi.
Despite initial optimism
surrounding Ndayishimiye’s presidency, recent developments suggest that
Burundi’s political and security situation remains precarious.
Although Ndayishimiye initially pursued a
reformist agenda and opened up political space, the continuation of CNDD-FDD’s
rule has been marked by repression and violent measures against opposition
groups. The suspension of the CNL and internal divisions within the party have
further weakened the opposition.
A worrying sign of regression is
Ndayishimiye’s rehabilitation of the Imbonerakure, the ruling party’s youth
wing.
Acting as a militia force, the
Imbonerakure has around 50,000 members and has been accused of committing
abuses against opposition members.
This indicates that, despite Nkurunziza’s
departure, authoritarianism persists in Burundi, sustained by a hegemonic party
and patronage networks.
Reforming the military is
essential for Burundi’s stabilization. However, a 2022 legislative initiative
suggests the armed forces will remain politicized.
The CNDD-FDD-dominated National
Assembly passed a law establishing the Reserve and Development Support Force
(FRAD), a paramilitary group tasked with defending Burundi’s territorial
integrity and supporting development. Critics argue this initiative aims to
create a parallel army and legitimize the Imbonerakure.
Regionally, President
Ndayishimiye has made efforts to mend diplomatic ties with neighboring
countries. However, tensions between Burundi and Rwanda, which peaked in
2015-2016 amid accusations of mutual interference, remain a significant
challenge, according to Pascal Niyonizigiye, a political science professor at
the University of Bujumbura.
Ndayishimiye sought to ease
these tensions after taking office. However, recent accusations against Rwandan
President Paul Kagame for supporting rebel groups have reignited regional
conflicts. During a visit to Kinshasa, Ndayishimiye condemned Kagame’s regime,
further straining relations.
The border between Burundi and
Rwanda was closed for seven years, reopening in 2022 after diplomatic efforts,
including Rwanda’s extradition of RED-Tabara rebels. Nevertheless, Burundi has
since closed the border again, citing Rwanda’s continued support for rebels.
These ongoing tensions contribute to regional instability and hinder economic
development.
The refugee crisis resulting
from decades of conflict also poses a significant challenge. Burundi, with a
population of 13 million, is one of Africa’s most densely populated countries.
The 2015 crisis saw over 400,000
Burundians flee the country. Those returning now struggle to regain access to
land, crucial for their livelihoods.
Burundi’s fragile economy, hit
by the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, faces high inflation and
fuel shortages, exacerbating living conditions in a country where two-thirds of
the population lives below the poverty line.
Despite re-engagement with
international donors and a $271 million IMF loan facility secured last year,
economic development remains elusive due to persistent patronage networks and
political tensions.
The upcoming 2025 general
elections will be pivotal for Burundi’s future. Two scenarios emerge: under the
first, most likely scenario, the CNDD-FDD and Ndayishimiye will consolidate
power, with increased state repression against the opposition.
This scenario may see Burundi
realigning its foreign policy towards alternative partners like Russia, further
isolating itself from Western donors.
In the second, less likely
scenario, the absence of a strong opposition in 2025 could lead to a peaceful
reelection of Ndayishimiye and a continuation of the status quo. However, this
scenario offers little hope for substantial political or economic reforms.
The regional dynamics,
particularly tensions between Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of
the Congo, will continue to impact Burundi’s stability. As historian Mussa
Lugete, a graduate of the University of Dar es Salaam notes, “The interplay of
domestic repression and regional conflicts suggests that Burundi’s path to
stability will be fraught with challenges.”
Despite some changes since
Pierre Nkurunziza’s controversial third term, Burundi continues to grapple with
significant issues such as repression, regional tensions, and economic
challenges. A critical aspect of the current political climate is the
persistent intimidation faced by opposition leaders, notably Agathon Rwasa.
Rwasa, a prominent opposition
stalwart and the leader of the National Congress for Freedom (CNL) has been a
consistent target of harassment and threats. His rallies are often disrupted by
the police, and his supporters frequently report being intimidated or attacked.
Critics, including an
international political analyst based in Dar es Salaam, argue that the
Burundian government’s tactics against Rwasa and other opposition figures are
part of a broader strategy to stifle dissent and maintain a tight grip on
power.
"The systemic intimidation of Agathon
Rwasa and his supporters is indicative of a regime that fears genuine
democratic competition," the analyst notes. "Such actions not only
undermine the democratic process but also contribute to a climate of fear and
uncertainty among the populace."
Further complicating Burundi’s
political landscape are its strained relations with neighboring Rwanda. The
tension between the two countries, rooted in historical animosities and
geopolitical rivalry, has significant implications for Burundi’s internal
stability.
Rwanda has been accused of supporting
Burundian rebels, a claim it denies, while Burundi has periodically accused
Rwanda of meddling in its domestic affairs. These frosty relations exacerbate
regional insecurity and impede efforts towards political reconciliation and
economic cooperation.
The 2025 elections in Burundi
are expected to be a pivotal moment for the country. The way these elections
are conducted and the extent to which they are free and fair will be critical
in determining Burundi’s trajectory in the coming years.
Regional developments, including
the dynamics with Rwanda, will also play a crucial role in shaping the
political and economic landscape.
While Burundi has made some
strides since Nkurunziza's third term, the challenges of repression, regional
tensions, and economic instability remain deeply entrenched. The treatment of
opposition figures like Agathon Rwasa and the ongoing conflict with Rwanda
highlights the complexities and hurdles facing Burundi.
As the 2025 elections approach, the eyes of
the world will be on this small but strategically important nation, watching to
see if it can navigate these challenges and move towards a more stable and
democratic future.