On May 18, 2025, the popular political program “Mediani za Siasa” on Star TV
hosted a deep and eye-opening conversation with Dr. Bravious Kahyoza, an
acclaimed economist and political analyst. In this candid
interview, he offered a penetrating look at the intersection of economics and
governance in Tanzania, questioning whether the country’s economic figures
truly reflect the daily struggles of ordinary citizens. Here is an edited
transcript of that powerful exchange.
Qn: Dr.
Kahyoza, you’re an economist and political analyst. We often hear that a strong
economy supports clean politics, and vice versa. How much does Tanzania’s
current economy reflect the actual living conditions of its citizens?
Dr. Kahyoza: The trajectory of Tanzania’s economic growth isn’t too different from what we’ve seen in other developing nations.
A key measurement of economic performance is GDP. In the first two decades after independence between 1961 and 1980 our economy was growing at a solid 6–7% annually.
So, when we saw similar numbers in the 2000s, it wasn’t a new phenomenon. However, the base size of our economy back then was very small, just about $2.56 billion.
Poverty reduction was
sluggish due to factors like geography and rapid population growth, which
diluted the effects of economic expansion.
After the painful economic challenges of the late 1980s, Tanzania adopted market-oriented reforms in the 1990s, which gradually spurred growth. By 2015, our economy reached $47 billion.
When President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in 2021, it
stood at $63 billion and today it has crossed $85 billion.
Now, does
this growth reflect on the ground? That’s the big question. Yes, our economy is
expanding, but the real issue is how much that growth is lifting people out of
poverty and increasing their incomes. So far, we’re not quite there. We still
have a long way to go, especially at the individual level.
Qn: The
government often says that individual incomes are rising. Yet, people continue
to complain about high living costs. Are current government efforts truly
addressing this disconnect?
Dr. Kahyoza: That’s a good question. Technically, personal income is rising. Twenty-five years ago, the average income per person was around $360. Today, it’s about $1,500.
That’s
a fourfold increase. But that pace isn’t fast enough. With population growth at
3% and economic growth at 5%, the net income growth per person is only about 2%
annually. In a poor country like ours, that’s not enough to make a dent in
poverty.
Now, on to living costs—yes, inflation is technically under 3%. But that’s a narrow measure. Over the past five years, inflation has averaged under 3%, yet the real cost of living has gone up by about 12%. So when people complain, they’re not wrong.
The slow income growth, combined with steady inflation, means that
life feels harder despite the “macro” progress.
Qn: And
what about the government’s strategy? Are they doing enough to respond to this
economic pressure?
Dr. Kahyoza: I’d say yes, the strategies are encouraging. One key area is food—urban households spend 55–56% of their income on food. Recognizing this, President Samia’s administration significantly increased the agriculture budget.
In 2021, the
agriculture budget was under TZS 300 billion. In just four years, it has
crossed TZS 1 trillion a fivefold increase! That’s major.
Also, her administration has worked hard to open up the economy. When she took over, there was a feeling that the economy was closing in on itself.
She reversed
that. The Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) reports that from 2021 to 2024,
investment projects created over 550,000 jobs. So yes, challenges remain—but
the direction is promising. Growth now isn’t just in size—it’s in scope.
Qn: You
mentioned economic openness under Samia. But during the late President John
Magufuli’s era, foreign travel by officials was restricted to cut costs. Today,
we see more frequent international trips. Which approach works better in your
view—as an economist?
Dr.
Kahyoza: There are
always two ways to manage an economy: direct control or facilitation.
Magufuli’s travel restrictions were aimed at cost-cutting, which made sense at
the time. But we lost out on global engagement.
Now, under Samia, the government has reconnected with the international community. Between 2021 and now, Tanzania’s international trade has risen by about $8 billion.
That’s historic. During Magufuli’s tenure, trade growth averaged about $3
billion; under Kikwete, it was closer to $2 billion. So, the travel might cost
money, but the returns—in terms of foreign investment and trade—are far
greater.
Qn:
Investment is vital. But we’re hearing growing complaints from local
businesspeople that foreign investors are dominating sectors where Tanzanians
could thrive. What’s your take?
Dr.
Kahyoza: That
concern is valid—and even the government acknowledges it. I remember Minister
Kitila Mkumbo saying we must protect spaces where locals can operate
effectively. We need policies and laws that ensure local participation.
This gap partly stems from historical missteps when we liberalized the economy. We opened up too quickly, without strengthening local players.
That needs fixing.
When locals are employed and empowered, it helps the economy overall. For every
1% increase in unemployment, economic growth drops by about 2%. Telling youth
to “just employ yourselves” isn’t a real policy—it’s rhetoric. We need
structured solutions, not slogans.
Qn:
Tanzania had a 25-year national vision plan—Vision 2025—and a new Vision 2050
is being drafted. Why is it important to have these long-term national plans?
Dr.
Kahyoza: National
visions act like a compass. They guide where we’re going. Vision 2025 helped us
define goals, track progress, and identify what still needs work. Vision 2050
will do the same but for the next generation.
Qn: Do
you think Vision 2025 succeeded? And what key areas should Vision 2050 focus
on?
Dr.
Kahyoza: Vision
2025 achieved a lot, like expanding our economy and raising Tanzania’s global
profile. But there’s a big issue with how we interpret economic growth. Most of
it has been in infrastructure—roads, railways, etc.—which follow accounting
logic, not human logic.
GDP
numbers have risen, yes. But the benefits haven’t trickled down equally.
There’s not enough production-based economic activity. We need to fix that as
we plan for 2050—ensure economic growth means better livelihoods, not just
higher statistics.
Qn: And
finally, how inclusive has the planning process been—especially for ordinary
Tanzanians—in developing these national visions?
Dr.
Kahyoza: There’s
been significant improvement. But we must do more—especially in involving
people in budgeting. Studies show that citizen participation in budget
processes in Tanzania is still low compared to other African countries like
Kenya or Uganda. That has to change if we want policies that reflect real
needs.
Dr. Kahyoza’s insights underscore a critical truth: economic figures don’t
always tell the whole story. While Tanzania has made strides in GDP growth,
investment, and trade, the challenge lies in ensuring that this prosperity is
inclusive and felt by every Tanzanian. As the country charts its course toward
2050, it must focus not just on growth—but on meaningful transformation.