 |
| Bishop questions whether the party should enter an election for which it seems unprepared or refrain from avoiding potential embarrassment. Photo: Courtesy |
By Adonis Byemelwa
In recent days, ambiguity has
surrounded how Tanzania's opposition party, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo
(Chadema), prepares for the upcoming local government elections on November 27,
fueling a heated debate on the party's commitment and readiness.
Political insiders note the
conspicuous silence of key Chadema leaders like Chairman Freeman Mbowe and his
deputy, Tundu Lissu, stirring speculation about possible internal discord.
On October 31, social media was awash
with rumors suggesting Chadema’s struggle to maintain campaign momentum, with
claims that the party had allegedly "rented" 19 former Members of
Parliament—who had once defied party directives—to assist in boosting its
election efforts. These allegations, however, were quickly dismissed by
Chadema’s members.
At an October 26 press briefing, Suzan
Lyimo, Speaker of Chadema's People's Assembly, addressed these rumors, calling
them baseless. “We are here to compete, not to withdraw,” she stated,
reinforcing the party’s resolve to fully participate in the election process.
Chadema has demonstrated its
commitment by initiating the distribution of nomination forms to candidates
across the country, ensuring they are positioned to advance within the
electoral process. John Mrema, Chadema’s Director of Ideology, Communications,
and Foreign Affairs, echoed Lyimo’s sentiments, calling the rumors “false and
misleading” while urging both party members and the public to disregard them.
Despite Chadema’s clear declarations,
concerns have emerged over irregularities in the voter registration process.
Lyimo and Chadema’s Spokesperson for Regional and Local Administration,
Mwachumu Kadutu, raised these issues, highlighting lapses in verifying voter
eligibility, particularly in border regions.
Kadutu pointed out that only minimal
information—full name, age, and signature—was required from registrants,
bypassing essential checks that ensure voters’ citizenship and residency.
Kadutu expressed fears that such oversights could allow non-citizens to
participate, thus undermining the integrity of the electoral process.
He noted reports of individuals moving
between wards to register, casting further doubt on the registration’s
credibility. The alleged registration of minors, as young as 14, in violation
of the minimum voting age of 18, has added to Chadema’s concerns about the
process’s fairness.
Chadema’s situation has drawn the
attention of public figures outside politics as well. Bishop Benson Bagonza of
the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Tanzania recently voiced his apprehensions
about the party's strategic direction in the upcoming elections. “It seems
Chadema wants to head east and west simultaneously,” he noted on social media,
capturing the sense of indecision within Chadema.
Bagonza questioned whether the party
should enter an election for which it seems unprepared or refrain to avoid
potential embarrassment. His remarks mirror the concerns of veteran politician
Dr. Willbroad Slaa, who has previously lamented the decline of Tanzanian opposition
parties, citing Chadema’s apparent lack of ideological direction.
Slaa argues that Chadema, once a
formidable opposition force, has lost its vigor and focus, leaving Tanzanians
with "what once was" the nation's principal opposition party.
Political analysts have compared
Chadema's current dilemma to the situation faced by Germany's Christian
Democrats, a party renowned for its strong ideological foundation and
adaptability. For Chadema, such an approach could serve as a strategic guide,
especially given the limited resources that constrain its operations.
The Christian Democrats have
historically leveraged grassroots mobilization, strategic donor contributions,
and a clear policy vision to resonate with constituents effectively, even in
challenging times.
By adopting similar methods, Chadema
could potentially strengthen its relevance, offering Tanzanians a meaningful
ideological alternative with a clear and consistent policy framework. Such a
strategic shift has helped the Christian Democrats remain influential and
resilient, even with limited resources, through targeted mobilization and
structured organizational approaches.
Bishop Bagonza’s critique has sparked
broader reflection within Chadema’s ranks, drawing attention to the importance
of preparation and mobilization in a political environment dominated by CCM’s
robust electoral machinery. Bagonza’s observations point to the challenges that
arise when opposition parties fail to adopt proactive and strategic stances,
often resulting in electoral outcomes that favor the ruling party.
He asserts that Chadema’s silence
reflects a broader vulnerability, urging that a serious contender must approach
elections with a well-prepared strategy, active grassroots mobilization, and a
clear vision for the electorate.
John Mnyika, Chadema’s Secretary
General, recently highlighted the party's financial difficulties, which may
explain the reduced visibility and enthusiasm among members.
Resource constraints have long plagued African
opposition parties, often limiting their reach and campaign effectiveness. In
the 2019 elections, Chadema struggled to match CCM's extensive campaign
apparatus and resource pool, further highlighting the need for a more
sustainable financial model.
Public donations collected during
rallies have traditionally provided Chadema with an essential funding source,
but the amount raised often falls short of the funds necessary to sustain
comprehensive campaigns across all constituencies.
Mnyika’s concerns reveal the fiscal strain
that Chadema is under and highlight the need for innovative financial
strategies that would support the party’s electoral ambitions without relying
solely on limited local contributions.
In a recent address, Chadema’s John
Mrema sought to reassure party members and the public by dismissing claims of
internal conflict. He reiterated Chadema’s commitment to winning seats in both
the forthcoming local elections and the parliamentary elections in 2025.
Despite the alleged barriers posed by
CCM, Mrema reported an encouraging rise in voter registration among Chadema
supporters. He affirmed that Chadema members across the country are actively
participating by taking nomination forms, signaling Chadema’s readiness for the
upcoming election. Mrema’s statements aim to dispel any doubts about Chadema’s
internal unity and reinforce its commitment to securing victories at both the
local and national levels.
For opposition movements across
Africa, Chadema’s experience highlights the systemic challenges they face in
competing against established ruling parties. Analysts have noted similar
challenges facing opposition parties continent-wide, observing that they often
grapple with structural biases within electoral processes, financial
disparities, and restrictions on resource mobilization.
Without significant reforms, these
factors continue to limit meaningful democratic competition, stifling political
innovation and undermining the ability of opposition parties to offer viable
alternatives. For Chadema, overcoming these obstacles demands not only internal
cohesion but also a commitment to a coherent, forward-thinking strategy that
appeals to Tanzanians.
Meanwhile, CCM’s coordinated and
well-resourced campaign apparatus continues to shape Tanzania’s political
environment, with its influence extending far beyond individual election
cycles.
Bishop Bagonza’s critique emphasizes that
CCM’s organizational discipline, financial resources, and strategic foresight afford
it a competitive advantage, allowing it to retain dominance in Tanzania’s
political sphere. In the absence of robust and organized opposition, CCM’s
electoral victories are often seen as foregone conclusions rather than genuine
political contests.
As Chadema approaches the November 27
elections, the stakes are high. The outcome will not only affect the
composition of local governance but also serve as an indicator of the broader
political landscape in Tanzania.
A successful campaign could bolster
Chadema’s image as a credible opposition force and reinvigorate its role in
Tanzanian politics. Nevertheless, a weak showing would likely further solidify
CCM’s dominance, raising questions about Chadema’s viability as an opposition
party. Political experts emphasize that Chadema must prioritize transparent
communication, structured grassroots efforts, and a focused campaign message.
Drawing from the successful strategies
of parties like Germany’s Christian Democrats, Chadema has the opportunity to
build a sustainable, scalable model that resonates with voters and maximizes
its impact, even with constrained resources.
In the context of African opposition
politics, Chadema’s situation highlights the broader challenges of maintaining
political relevance in environments where ruling parties dominate resources and
influence.
Sustained political impact requires a
balance of organizational strength, adaptability, and an unwavering commitment
to grassroots engagement. Without these elements, Chadema’s aspirations may falter,
but with a disciplined approach, the party could emerge as a resilient force,
offering Tanzanians a meaningful political choice for the future.