The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has warned that the 2025/2026 Msimu rainy season may bring below-normal rainfall across most unimodal regions, raising concerns over food security, water supply, and livelihoods.
The forecast covers western, central, southwestern highlands, southern regions, southern coast, and southern Morogoro.
Rains are expected to start in late October in Tabora, Katavi, and Kigoma, spreading to Rukwa, Songwe, Mbeya, Iringa, Njombe, and southern Morogoro in November, and ending between late April and early May 2026. The second half of the season, from February to April, is expected to be wetter than the first.
Risks to Agriculture and Livelihoods
TMA says below-normal rainfall could reduce soil moisture, affecting crop growth and yields for rain-fed farming. Farmers are urged to prepare fields early, adopt water-saving techniques, and protect crops from pests, including rodents and termites. Livestock keepers may face shortages of pasture and water, potentially leading to conflicts over resources.
Water and Energy Concerns
Reduced rainfall is likely to lower river flows and reservoir levels, affecting domestic water supply, irrigation, and hydroelectric power generation. Communities are advised to conserve water, while authorities should ensure clean and adequate water distribution.
Impact on Wildlife and Tourism
National parks and game reserves may face water and pasture shortages, pushing wildlife into nearby communities. Authorities are urged to strengthen park infrastructure and raise public awareness to prevent conflicts and safeguard both humans and animals.
Transport, Construction, and Disaster Preparedness
While lower rainfall may benefit road, rail, air, and maritime operations, sudden heavy showers could disrupt activities. Disaster management teams are preparing for droughts, flash floods, and landslides, emphasizing early warning systems and community awareness.
Health Precautions
Communities may be forced to use unsafe water sources, increasing health risks. TMA advises treating water before use, maintaining hygiene, and ensuring adequate medical supplies.
TMA Guidance
Despite expected suppressed rainfall, extreme weather events remain possible. Farmers, livestock keepers, and all weather-dependent sectors are urged to follow daily, ten-day, and monthly forecasts and seek expert advice to reduce risks.