Allies and opponents alike are watching Trump’s next moves, uncertain whether his declared intentions will translate into action. Photo: Courtesy
By Adonis Byemelwa
Following Donald Trump's recent election, analysts speculate on the potential impact of his presidency on Middle Eastern dynamics. Known for his unequivocal support of Israel during his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as the nation's capital, halted aid to the U.N. agency assisting Palestinian refugees, and advanced a peace plan that heavily favored Israel
Israeli officials are reportedly optimistic about the possibility of favorable terms from the Trump administration, potentially enabling Israel to reach advantageous settlements in its conflicts with Gaza and Lebanon. Trump’s recent communication with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has raised Palestinian hopes that he might adopt a more balanced approach to the region’s challenges.
In his previous presidency, Trump helped facilitate landmark diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab nations. With this foundation in place, he may work toward a similar agreement with Saudi Arabia.
However, lasting peace in the region would likely require a resolution between Israel and Palestine, a prospect that remains difficult without direct negotiations. Some analysts believe that while temporary cease-fires may be achieved in Gaza and Lebanon early in his term, a more comprehensive solution involving both parties is essential for enduring stability.
Members of Israel’s right-wing government believe a Trump presidency could support policies favoring increased settlement in Gaza, greater Israeli control over the West Bank, and potentially stronger actions against Iran.
Nevertheless, Trump’s unpredictable nature may lead to divergence in priorities; for instance, he recently suggested he may not support regime change in Iran, a goal for some Israeli leaders, highlighting a possible shift in U.S.-Israel dynamics.
According to Aljazeera Television, Trump has suggested he envisions a decisive Israeli victory in Gaza and may support a more forceful military campaign if it leads to a quicker resolution. Yet, he may become less tolerant if the conflict drags on without a clear outcome.
In a postwar scenario, Trump may lean toward endorsing Israeli civilian control over parts of Gaza—a departure from his earlier proposal, which had included Gaza as part of a potential Palestinian state. Given the Israeli government’s current stance on Palestinian sovereignty, particularly following recent escalations, this approach could be more in line with Israeli expectations.
Recent events reflect the continuing volatility in the region. Israeli forces reportedly struck a shelter in northern Gaza, resulting in dozens of casualties among displaced families, according to emergency services in the area.
An airstrike in a village north of Beirut, believed to be carried out by Israel, also caused significant casualties, as confirmed by Lebanon’s health ministry. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s deadline for Israel to increase humanitarian aid access in Gaza is approaching, as a U.N.-backed panel has warned that famine is imminent in the northern areas of the territory. In a recent setback for diplomatic efforts, Qatar paused its role as a mediator in cease-fire discussions due to deadlocked negotiations.
With his return to office, Trump appears focused on “retribution” for perceived wrongs during his previous tenure. Allies and opponents alike are watching his next moves, uncertain whether his declared intentions will translate into action. Observers note that while Trump’s strategy may not target high-profile figures, he is likely to pursue a range of measures reflecting his ambitions for domestic and foreign policy.